Synthetic Control

Six Ways to Evaluate a Policy using R: Comparative Case Studies of Proposition 99

Did the 1988 California cigarette tax reduce cigarette sales, and do different methods agree on how much? This R tutorial applies six ways of evaluating a policy to the same data and finds that most point to a drop of roughly 13 to 20 packs per person each year. It comes with an interactive app that runs in your web browser.

Bayesian Spatial Synthetic Control: California's Proposition 99 in R

How much did the 1988 California tobacco tax reduce cigarette sales? We build a look-alike California from other states and also measure how the policy spilled over to neighboring states such as Nevada, where people cross the border to buy cigarettes. This R tutorial comes with an interactive app that runs in your web browser.

Basic Synthetic Control with R: The Basque Country Case Study

What did years of terrorist violence cost the economy of the Basque Country in Spain? This beginner R tutorial builds a look-alike Basque Country from other Spanish regions, mostly Catalonia and Madrid, and finds income per person roughly 8 percent lower at the widest point of the gap. It comes with an interactive app that runs in your web browser.

The Synthetic Control Method in Stata: Did Proposition 99 Cut Smoking in California?

Did the 1988 tobacco tax and anti-smoking campaign in California cut cigarette sales? In Stata, we use the synthetic control method, which builds a look-alike California from a mix of other states, and find that sales fell by about 19 packs per person per year. It comes with an interactive app that runs in your web browser.

Synthetic Control with Prediction Intervals: Quantifying Uncertainty in Germany's Reunification Impact

Did German reunification in 1990 lower income in West Germany, and how sure can we be? This Python tutorial builds a look-alike West Germany from other wealthy countries and adds a range of likely values around the estimate, showing income per person about 11 percent below the comparison by 2003. It comes with an interactive app that runs in your web browser.

Causal effects of a CO2 tax

Theresa Graefe (Ulm University) has created a very nice RTutor that allows you to replicate the main results of a recent AEJ paper on the causal effects of a CO2 tax in Sweden using the syntetic control method.