Dynamic Panel BMA: Which Factors Truly Drive Economic Growth?

Status: Script reviewed (ACCEPT) Language: R Last run: 2026-04-01

Overview

Bayesian Model Averaging for dynamic panel data with weakly exogenous regressors using the bdsm R package. Analyzes which of 9 candidate growth determinants truly drive economic growth across 73 countries over 4 decades (1970–2000), accounting for reverse causality through lagged dependent variables and fixed effects. Improvement over v1: data preparation demeaning by both year AND entity (country).

Pipeline Progress

• Script (analysis.R) – executed and reviewed (ACCEPT)
• Results report (results_report.md) – pending
• Blog post (index.md) – pending
• Infographic (infographic_instructions.md) – pending

Generated Figures

#	File	Description
1	r_bdsm_model_pmp.png	Prior vs posterior model probabilities (bdsm built-in)
2	r_bdsm_model_sizes.png	Model size distribution (bdsm built-in)
3	r_bdsm_coef_hist_pop.png	Population coefficient histogram (bdsm built-in)
4	r_bdsm_sizes_dilution.png	Model sizes under dilution prior (bdsm built-in)
5	r_dynamic_bma2_pip.png	PIP bar chart – custom ggplot2 dark theme
6	r_dynamic_bma2_coef.png	Coefficient estimates with 95% CIs – custom ggplot2 dark theme
7	r_dynamic_bma2_sensitivity.png	Prior sensitivity dumbbell chart – custom ggplot2 dark theme

Generated Tables (CSV)

#	File	Description
1	economic_growth.csv	Raw source dataset from bdsm package
2	original_economic_growth.csv	Source dataset with lagged GDP column
3	data_prepared.csv	Final processed dataset (standardized + demeaned by year + entity)
4	fe_regression.csv	Kitchen-sink fixed effects regression coefficients
5	bma_binomial.csv	BMA results with binomial prior (EMS = 4.5)
6	bma_binomial_beta.csv	BMA results with binomial-beta prior
7	best_models_inclusion.csv	Top 8 models inclusion matrix
8	best_models_estimates.csv	Top 8 models coefficient estimates
9	prior_sensitivity.csv	PIPs across all prior specifications
10	jointness_hcghm.csv	HCGHM jointness matrix

Datasets

File	Rows	Cols	Description
economic_growth.csv	365	12	Raw panel data (73 countries, 5 periods, 9 regressors)
original_economic_growth.csv	292	13	Panel data with lagged GDP (excludes initial period)
data_prepared.csv	365	12	Standardized + demeaned by year + demeaned by entity

Pipeline Documents

File	Description
plan.md	Approved scope and design decisions
script-review.md	Code review report (verdict: ACCEPT)
README.md	This file – artifact inventory and status

Packages

• bdsm – Bayesian Dynamic Systems Modeling
• tidyverse – data manipulation and visualization
• parallel – parallel computing for model space estimation
• scales – number formatting for ggplot axes